Back in what seems like a different time, before the Coronavirus pandemic, it appeared the automotive world was fast heading down the road towards highly automated vehicles. However, in the space of just four months the landscape is very different and those anticipating a time when they can let the car do the driving are going to have to wait quite a bit longer.

Several factors have come together which mean autonomous vehicle development over the coming years will not be a fast as first thought. Even prior to Covid-19 developers were struggling with technical and legal issues, while much of the potential market remained lukewarm to the prospect. The pandemic has now brought economic factors to the fore, with car makers being forced to divert development money to more pressing needs. In many cases this simply mean staying in business, while development funds that are available are more likely to be allocated to electrification.

A new report by Guidehouse now does not expect any significant deployment of highly automated vehicles before 2025 and it seems this may be more limited to specific urban areas where infrastructure is more developed. The emphasis is also likely to switch to goods delivery, rather than passenger carrying. Ride-hailing and sharing services where a key market for autonomous vehicles, but this sector’s future is now very unclear.

At the same time a study by the US Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has cast doubt on the ability of autonomous vehicles to eliminate most crashes. The potential safety benefits of self driving cars, able to eliminate driver error, has long been hailed as one of their major benefits, but this report indicates they may only cut accidents by a third.

The IIHS studied 5000 police accident records and found that driver error does play a plays a role in 9 out of 10 crashes, but it is only the final failure in a chain of events. The report found that only around a third crashes could be avoided by more accurate automated perception and to avoid the other two-thirds, cars would need to be specifically programmed to prioritise safety over speed and convenience.